“When Things Get Back to Normal.”

I’ve uttered those words myself; “When things get back to normal”. Usually with a sense of optimism that supply chains will return to a familiar pattern once the pandemic is over, or after trade-war uncertainty has passed, or geo-political instabilities dissipate, or extreme weather events become less disruptive.

But more and more it feels like I’m playing a game of pretend.

More and more if feels like I am sitting by and watching as if nothing is wrong while small children play amidst hyenas and lions and assuming all is well because someone once told me there’s no such thing as monsters.

It’s beginning to feel like a game of pretend because even if all that uncertainty I mentioned dissipated – that’s mostly the supply-side variability. If it stabilized, it wouldn’t change conditions in the environment on the demand side.

And the demand side of the equation is getting very strange indeed. How strange? Well, the authenticity, trust, and reputation economy for one thing.

For example, there’s a twenty-something female corn and soybean farmer in central Nebraska who is bending the demand curve on tractor sales. Yes, tractor sales.

In addition to farming, she shares her “day-in-a-life” to 3 million subscribers across all platforms, including 675,000 subscribers to her long-form content on YouTube. Laura Farms isn't a tractor company but she acts like one in practice by being an authentic storyteller and sharing her life on the farm. That authentic storytelling shapes perception, accelerates interest, boosts traffic for equipment platforms and dealers and in today's digital world, translates into real-world tractor sales - especially in secondary and used-equipment markets.

Think about that for a moment. Laura’s not talking about books, beauty products, fashion accessories, food, home goods, or some impulse-buy products. Tractors are durable goods and long-term business investments. If the demand needle for capital goods, like tractors can be moved by the “reputation economy” then something very strange indeed is happening on the demand side and it’s not going away.

Yes, Laura Farms is indeed influencing tractor and farm-equipment interest and driving changes in demand patterns, though not by directly selling machinery.

Here’s how:

The Trust / Reputation Economy - Influence Through Content

• Laura Wilson, known online as Laura Farms, is a 5th-generation row-crop farmer who turned agricultural influencer with over 3 million followers across platforms.

• She builds trust by showing real-world use and cost-effective choices, influencing buyers leaning toward refurbishing existing tractors or buying used ones.

• Her videos, often showcasing tractors - old and new that generate hundreds of thousands of views. For example, a new tractor surprise video hit over 1 million views

• She’s partnered with Tractor Tuesday, a farm equipment auction platform, to give away a John Deere Gator, boosting signups and visibility.

• Content featuring new and vintage tractors often triggers interest and inquiries, with used equipment demand gaining traction when she showcases the equipment reliability and utility of older models. Her “59-Year-Old Tractor | Growing Sweet Corn For CHEAP” YouTube video that features a 1965 John Deere 4020 tractor has a massive one-million views.

https://www.youtube.com/@LauraFarms

A lot is Happening on the Demand Side – And It’s Amplifying Variability

1. E-commerce Growth & Instant Gratification

• Shorter order-to-ship windows (same-day or 2-day delivery expectations).

• 24/7 global ordering leads to non-linear, non-seasonal demand.

• Spike-heavy buying patterns (e.g., drops, flash sales).

2. Social Media Virality & TikTok Trends

• Sudden surges from influencers or viral posts.

• Unforecastable and unrepeatable demand pulses.

• Zero early warning from traditional demand sensing tools.

3. Consumer Personalization & Customization

• Mass customization (shoes, supplements, apparel) fragments demand.

• More SKU variants = more fragmented, less predictable forecast environment.

4. Behavioral Shifts & Demand Signal Noise

• Emotion-driven or identity-driven purchases (e.g., “I buy local,” “eco-friendly only”).

• Short-lived ethical or tribal consumer preferences (e.g., boycott-driven spikes/drops).

5. Omnichannel / Multi-Channel Fulfillment

• Demand is now split across: Brick-and-mortar. Direct-to-consumer (DTC). Online Marketplaces. Social commerce (Instagram, TikTok shop).

• These channels have different lead times, batch sizes, and demand rhythms, creating bullwhip distortions.

6. Reverse Logistics & Returns

• Returns rates of >30% in some apparel categories.

• Creates phantom inventory and distorts net demand.

• Requires planning for reprocessing capacity, not just forward fulfillment.

7. Drop Culture / Scarcity Based-Marketing

• Engineered scarcity (Yeezy, Supreme) that causes spikes and crashes.

• Producers utilizing “Drop” models (Nerdy Nuts) that bypass traditional forecasting entirely.

8. Secondary & Resale Markets

• Demand “leaks” into reseller platforms like GOAT, eBay, and Facebook Marketplace.

• Undermines first-party forecasts.

• Incentivizes hoarding or speculative bulk purchases.

9. Subscription Models

• Introduces steady-state illusion of demand.

• Churn and promotional spikes (e.g., Black Friday sign-ups) inject variability.

10. Pre-orders and Crowdfunding

• False demand signal (pre-orders can be cancelled or padded).

• Backloaded fulfillment schedules can lead to bottlenecks.

11. Geo-Targeted Promotions / Influencer Regions

• Local influencers drive region-specific demand surges.

• Warehouse planning and fulfillment are often not geo-aligned.

12. Dynamic Pricing / Algorithmic Ads

• Surge pricing or promo targeting causes demand spikes that are machine-induced.

• Marketers A/B testing price points in real time create artificial volatility.

13. Event-Driven Demand Surges

• Cultural moments (e.g., Beyoncé mentions a product).

• Typically, cannot be captured in baseline forecasts.

14. Out-of-Stock Transfer Effects

• A stockout in one brand or retailer can drive spillover demand to others.

• Customers substitute without loyalty - creating erratic pull.

15. Social Media Backlash & Negative Word-of-Mouth Going Viral

• Suppresses new orders as trust erodes. In the attention economy, reputation spreads faster than retraction.

• Increases cart abandonment and customer hesitation.

• Deters influencers or repeat buyers.

• Can damage direct-to-consumer brands very quickly, especially small or mid-size ones that rely on goodwill and organic traffic - Nick’s Handmade Boots is often praised for quality but also sharply criticized on Reddit and social media forums for long lead times (2-3 months for belts).

Why It Matters:

These factors don’t just cause forecast misses, they portend a future where the environment itself is structurally unreliable to precise forecasting methods for many SKUs.

Even if by some miracle, the supply side returns to “normal”—with fewer disruptions, stabilized tariffs, and smoother global logistics without pandemics or other disruptions—the real supply chain pressure isn’t going away.

The demand side has fundamentally changed. Consumers aren’t going to travel backwards in time to the days when they start ordering less often, with more patience, or in familiar, predictable patterns. Ongoing volatility is now baked into demand-side. Yet our current breed of supply chain planning systems and execution models are built on the assumption that stability at both ends of the supply chain will hold.

And if the environment at the demand side is itself becoming more structurally unreliable to precise forecasting, then the thing I would like to tell everyone is that the bullwhip effect is alive and well. It’s very powerful. It’s still working. We haven’t gotten past the ability to collaborate and execute on demand to a level where we can match up what’s happening at the customer’s basket with how we order and flow goods.

It’s hard to argue with the concept that we should be matching the flow of goods with what happens at the shelf. It’s pretty hard to argue that point. Then why are supply chains not doing it?

For us in a tactical world, that’s critical because if we have a mismatch then a customer order will show up that’s very different than what we expected and then we in operations are scrambling and incurring a lot of costs to fulfill it.

The next time you think about supply chains, flip the perspective and substitute “demand chain”. Give yourself the opportunity to look at the current environment of demand variability and uncertainty and from the point of view of what’s happening at the customer’s shopping cart instead of from the operational supply fulfillment side. Give yourself the space to ask if you believe that the demand-side is ever getting back to normal.

Maybe a little different framing gives an opportunity to reflect on the purpose of the system: to satisfy end-customer demand, not just to move materials forward. Supply chains exist because of demand but they fail when they ignore or misalign to it.

Reframing as a demand chain can help shift focus on sensing, responding, and flowing product to real market needs without signal distortions and that’s a lower cost to serve versus just producing and shipping efficiently because it is:

• Customer-Centric: Puts the consumer or user at the center of the planning process.

• Pull-Based: Aligns with systems like Kanban, where demand drives replenishment and production.

• Strategic: Helps shift our mindset from “pushing products” to delivering value.

• Better reflects today’s environment: Where demand is volatile, personalized, and multi-channel requiring flexibility, resilience and responsiveness.